Are prediction markets just sports betting by another name? How legal battles are taking shape The Athletic
Combined with FanDuel, the two operators control about 78% of all legal sports betting revenue in the United States. DraftKings holds approximately 34% of the US sports betting market by GGR. FanDuel holds approximately 44% of the US sports betting market by gross gaming revenue (GGR) as of Q1 2026, making it the largest sportsbook operator in the country. The diversity of operators in New Jersey has made it a benchmark for consumer-friendly market structure.
The sudden surge came with the change in presidential administrations, which is crucial because prediction markets are regulated via a federal commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). But in the United States, if you call something gambling, it subjects that activity to a different set of rules governed by individual states that choose which forms of gambling they allow. Prediction market company Kalshi reported that it saw over $1 billion in trading volume on the event, which helped set a daily record for the company and was 27 times higher than Super Bowl activity last year. At this year’s Super Bowl, prediction markets had their biggest single day ever. NRL player props are currently available from select AU bookmakers, including Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, TAB, Pointsbet and Betr AFL player props are currently available from select AU bookmakers, including Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, TAB, Pointsbet and Betr
FanDuel Predicts is expected to expand to other states in 2026, but did say in a press release that “As new states legalize online sports betting, FanDuel will cease offering sports event contracts in those states.” That federal regulation has been essential to the sudden growth of prediction markets because that means they can go live in all states, including those where traditional mobile sports betting remains illegal, such as California and Texas. Even if it’s not going to be the highest-volume market or highest revenue-producing market, if we think there is interesting or pertinent information to be gleaned from it, we’ll list it. The two companies gained wider awareness for allowing people to put money down predicting presidential elections, but sports predictions have been critical to their growth and to the number of companies entering the space. Broadly, prediction markets are exchanges, like stock markets, where people bet on the outcomes of future events. For operators, success is not about offering as many markets as possible, but about offering the right ones.
The majority of prediction markets are a binary option market. With prediction markets, you could also choose to sell your shares before the Super Bowl. If you looked at NFL futures on a prediction market website it would list teams and the likelihood, percentage-wise, that each team would win the Super Bowl. When it comes to prediction markets, you are exchanging your money with other market participants – just like the stock market. Basic odds set by the sportsbook are point spreads, moneylines and totals.
It’s available in almost every state where betting is legal and is virtually unmatched in terms of betting markets, promotions, fast banking options, and customer service. New customers with DraftKings can place an initial deposit and wager of $5 or more on any sports market to receive $200 in bonus bets, win or lose. BetMGM is one of the top-rated sportsbooks in the U.S. offering some of the best live betting odds in the industry.
Now his former company and his current one both have prediction markets that launched in December. The counterpoint is that stock markets operate similarly to prediction markets and are not considered gambling. “Now, we have people betting on the Eagles -2.5 with it.” “This was written for like oil futures and weather predictions where they have to help sports betting sites have some checks and balances if the farmers have a bad winter or something,” Goldman said. While sports betting has its own taxation laws, which remain in flux, prediction markets are taxed as futures.
Sports betting sites typically provide a wide range of betting options and markets compared to retail sportsbooks. Users can access the platform from any internet-enabled device, making it easy to place bets from the comfort of their homes or on the go. That brings the total to almost 35 states accepting online bets, with another seven states currently offering only retail sports betting. Additionally, prediction markets have become available nationwide, unlocking a slew of great prediction market promos.
Terms, including FanCash terms apply-see Fanatics Sportsbook app. New customers in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MO, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY (excl. NY). “We believe what’s happening in prediction markets is sports gambling. Kalshi and Polymarket were the disruptors, but sports betting companies and even fantasy sports companies are joining in, as well as investment apps like Robinhood. But in terms of action on an individual event, Such said that the biggest events are financial ones, and entertainment is a growing area. You won’t see bonus bets or profit boosts on prediction markets in the same way that sportsbooks offer them.
For grading speed, we measured the time between the official completion of the relevant wager and the bet being marked as settled in the sportsbook account. Throughout the year, we’re testing five of the top betting sites and apps in the U.S. under the same conditions to see which delivers the best overall betting experience. The best sports betting sites must work hard to entice both new and existing users. If your bet settles as a loss, get the stake of the eligible wager back, up to $1,000.
